Read This First

Method

How This Dashboard Was Built

1. The main reference group is built from Olympic skaters in the individual long-track events from Vancouver 2010, Sochi 2014, Gangneung 2018, Beijing 2022, and Milano 2026.
2. A larger non-Olympian development group is added so the probability model is not learned only from successful careers.
3. Each season is represented by the athlete's best time in that distance, then compared with that season's benchmark time, which is the top-10 standard for the event.
4. Times are adjusted for faster and slower ovals using same-athlete, same-season comparisons across tracks.
5. Skaters are aligned by years skated in that distance, then smoothed into historical Olympian, top-10, top-5, and podium ranges.
6. The odds shown for each season reflect how often historical skaters at a similar level and years skated later reached each outcome.

The reference range shows the middle 70% of the successful group at the same years skated in the distance (`q15-q85`). The target range shows the tighter middle 30% of that same group (`q35-q65`) and is the main standard used for the season call.