Read This First

Rationale

Why The Funnel Moves

1. Pick a goal. The shaded funnel changes to skaters who later reached that result level.
2. Each season uses the skater's best time in the distance, adjusted for faster and slower ovals.
3. The main path is the middle 30% of successful seasons at the same experience point.
4. The wider path is the middle 70%, shown so near misses are easy to see.
5. Odds are historical rates for skaters at a similar level and experience.

Use the result as a signal, not a selection decision. Small samples and unusual development paths can move the estimate.